The Unraveling Border: Causes and Consequences of the Latest Afghanistan-Pakistan Clashes
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The rugged, mountainous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, known as the Durand Line, is a flashpoint of persistent conflict. Recent deadly clashes in October 2025 have pushed relations to an all-time low. These incidents are more than mere skirmishes. The volatile frontier between Afghanistan and Pakistan has long been a flashpoint for regional instability. Recently, a fresh wave of intense military clashes has ignited deep concern across South Asia and beyond. These confrontations underscore the persistent challenges plaguing the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and highlight the urgent need for a diplomatic resolution.
Introduction: The Volatile Afghanistan-Pakistan Frontier
Tensions along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border have dramatically escalated, reaching a critical juncture in October 2025. The escalation follows reported Pakistani airstrikes deep inside Afghanistan. Pakistan stated that these strikes targeted the leadership of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Subsequently, Afghan forces launched retaliatory operations and engaged in fierce border clashes at multiple points.
The relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan has always been complex. A history of mutual suspicion and inherent tensions marks the relationship. Pakistan was a key supporter of the Afghan Taliban's rise to power in the 1990s. It continued to play a significant, albeit complicated, role after the US withdrawal in 2021. However, this historical connection has not led to stable Afghan Taliban Pakistan relations. Instead, it has often fueled resentment.
At the heart of this enduring dispute lies the Durand Line conflict. This colonial-era demarcation remains largely unrecognized by Afghanistan. This lack of recognition forms the bedrock of persistent border disputes between the two nations.
A Contested Legacy: The Durand Line at the Heart of the Conflict
The Durand Line stretches over 2,640 kilometers (1,640 miles). The British established it in 1893 as a demarcation between British India and Afghanistan. The colonial-era border has been a source of contention for over a century. Afghanistan has never officially recognized it as a legitimate international boundary.
The Afghan government views the Durand Line as an imposed division. It splits the Pashtun ethnic communities living on both sides of the frontier. Conversely, Pakistan considers the Durand Line a settled international border. This fundamental disagreement fuels many of the current tensions. Michael Kugelman, a director at the Wilson Center, notes, "No Afghan government, including the current Taliban regime, has recognized the [official] border since Pakistan's independence".
Recent Escalations: Immediate Triggers and Military Responses (October 2025)
Pakistani military actions directly triggered the most recent surge in border clashes in South Asia, witnessed in October 2025. On October 9, 2025, Pakistan reportedly launched targeted airstrikes in Afghanistan. The strikes targeted TTP leadership, including its chief, Noor Wali Mehsud, in Kabul and other provinces like Paktika, Kunar, and Nangarhar. The Pakistani action followed a militant attack that killed 11 Pakistani military personnel in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The strikes sparked swift and forceful retaliatory operations by Afghan forces. Intense border clashes erupted at multiple points along the Durand Line between October 11 and 12, 2025. Both sides reported capturing border posts and inflicting significant casualties. For instance, the Afghan Taliban claimed their forces killed 58 Pakistani soldiers.
The escalating conflict led to the immediate closure of vital border crossings. These included Torkham and Chaman. The closure severely impacted the movement of people and goods between the two countries.
Pakistan claimed its forces killed over 200 "Taliban and affiliated terrorists" in response. The Pakistan military also said 23 of its soldiers died. However, a Taliban spokesperson, Zabihullah Mujahid, claimed Afghan forces killed 58 Pakistani soldiers and captured 25 military outposts. The conflicting reports highlight the deep mistrust between the two nations. Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif declared that there are "no ties" with Kabul following these incidents. He warned that hostilities could .
The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Cross-Border Sanctuary
The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, is a designated terrorist organization. The group operates along the Afghan-Pakistani border. Its stated goal is to overthrow the government of Pakistan. Pakistan consistently accuses the Afghan Taliban of sheltering TTP members. These militants then launch attacks on Pakistani soil.
The TTP has intensified its attacks since the Afghan Taliban took control in 2021. These attacks primarily target Pakistan's security forces, politicians, and civilians. Many TTP leaders have reportedly sought refuge in Afghanistan. However, the Afghan Taliban government denies these accusations. In October 2025, Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited India. He denied his country harbored TTP members. He told Pakistan not to blame Afghanistan for its internal problems.
Pakistan launched airstrikes in March 2024, targeting alleged TTP hideouts in Afghanistan's Khost and Paktika provinces. This was in retaliation for a militant attack that killed Pakistani soldiers. Similarly, the October 2025 clashes were preceded by alleged Pakistani airstrikes in and around Kabul on October 9. Pakistan reportedly targeted TTP strongholds and leadership.
The New Delhi factor
The weekend’s clashes also coincided with Muttaqi’s first visit to India. He is, in fact, the first senior Taliban leader to travel to New Delhi since the group took control of Afghanistan four years ago.
Muttaqi received a temporary United Nations-sanctions exemption to travel for a week, from October 9 to 16, and met Indian Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar.
Kabul’s moves towards New Delhi also represent the culmination of months of diplomacy that Pakistan has watched closely.
From the mid-1990s until a few years ago, India viewed the Taliban as a proxy for Pakistan’s intelligence agencies and accused the group and its allies of deadly attacks on its diplomatic missions in Afghanistan.
But since the group returned to power in Afghanistan, and amid rising Taliban-Pakistan tensions, India has engaged in a series of outreach efforts with Kabul’s new leaders, leading to Muttaqi’s visit.
Islamabad continues to allege that New Delhi is fomenting trouble in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, and that some groups from Afghan territory are funded or supported by New Delhi, charges that India has consistently rejected.
Now, with tensions on both its western and eastern fronts, Islamabad needs to stay cautious, said Baloch, the former ambassador.
“No country can afford to open war fronts on all its borders, and that goes for Pakistan also,” she said.
Meanwhile, some analysts have questioned Pakistan’s posture of neither accepting responsibility for last Thursday’s explosions in Afghanistan, nor denying a role.
This could damage Pakistan’s credibility if groups based in Afghanistan attack Pakistan again, suggested Fahad Nabeel, who leads the Islamabad-based research consultancy Geopolitical Insights.
“The main question will be why Pakistani officials did not claim responsibility for the previous alleged strikes [in Afghanistan, in response to attacks in Pakistan]. If Pakistan merely uses the terrorism-threat narrative, critics will ask why it did not take such actions in the past decade,” Nabeel told Al Jazeera.
However, Nabeel said he did not see major parallels between India’s response to the April attack and Pakistan’s recent approach towards the Taliban. “The only commonalities”, he said, lay in both India and Pakistan, accusing their neighbours — Pakistan and Afghanistan, respectively — of not doing enough to stop UN-sanctioned individuals and groups from using their soil to attack others.
The Dispute Over Border Fencing
Pakistan has been actively fencing its 2,640-kilometer border with Afghanistan. The aim is to curb cross-border terrorism and illegal movement. As of April 2023, approximately 98% of the fencing project was complete. By mid-2025, over 90% of the fence was in place. The project, however, is a major point of contention.
The Afghan government strongly opposes the fencing. It argues that the Durand Line is a disputed border. Taliban forces have repeatedly intervened to block and dismantle sections of the fence. They claim it is an attempt by Pakistan to solidify a contested boundary and divide Pashtun communities. Richard Olson of the United States Institute of Peace highlights that the Taliban's physical efforts to dismantle the fence are "more than an invocation of a historical claim." They represent "a tangible challenge to a pillar of Pakistan's recent security policy"
Despite shared cultural and religious ties, deep mistrust plagues Afghanistan-Pakistan relations. Pakistan historically supported the Afghan Taliban. It is believed it could influence the Taliban government in Kabul. However, this expectation has been largely unmet. The Afghan Taliban has shown increasing independence. It refuses to accept the Durand Line as a legitimate border.
Pakistan views the Taliban as a "vassal" that should be grateful for past support. The Taliban, however, seeks domestic legitimacy and international recognition. Lashing out at Pakistan helps them gain goodwill from the Afghan public, many of whom distrust Pakistan. This dynamic creates a "stalemate," as Pakistan's Defense Minister put it. Sami Yousafzai, a journalist, describes the relationship as a fight between "two cousins." He notes they "cannot leave each other, but they cannot find a way to fix their relationship either".
Socio-Economic Factors and Smuggling
The porous border region is also a hub for illicit activities. Smuggling of drugs, weapons, and other goods is common. This illicit trade often sustains militant organizations. The fencing project impacts the livelihoods of cross-border communities and farmers. It disrupts their traditional mobility and family ties. Such measures can exacerbate local grievances and contribute to unrest.
Far-Reaching Consequences of the Border Clashes
The escalating tensions and recurrent clashes have severe consequences. These impacts extend beyond the immediate border areas. They affect human lives, economies, and regional stability.
Humanitarian Crisis and Displacement
Border closures frequently strand thousands of people. This includes traders and patients seeking medical treatment in Pakistan. Perishable goods, like fruits and vegetables, often rot, causing significant losses.
Moreover, Pakistan launched a drive in October 2023 to deport undocumented Afghan refugees. An estimated 1.7 million individuals were ordered to leave by November 2023. This mass deportation has created a severe humanitarian crisis. It adds immense pressure on Afghanistan, which already faces economic struggles. A sustained conflict would only trigger further refugee flows, worsening an already fragile situation.
Economic Impact and Trade Disruption
Border crossings are vital to Afghanistan's economy. The country lacks access to the sea. Thus, it heavily relies on Pakistani ports for imports and exports. Closures at key crossings like Torkham and Spin Boldak inflict millions of dollars in losses daily.
Consider these figures:In 2023, bilateral trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan was about $2.5 billion.
It dropped sharply to $1.6 billion in 2024.
The closure of Torkham Gate in early 2025 alone caused Pakistan an estimated loss of $15 million and Afghanistan nearly $10 million in just 20 days.
These disruptions affect not only bilateral trade but also transit trade to Central Asia. Junaid Ismail Makda, president of the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry, emphasized, "The border closure is not only hurting Pakistan-Afghanistan trade but also affecting exports to Central Asia, causing daily losses of millions of dollars". Afghanistan is exploring alternatives, such as Iran's Chabahar port, to reduce its dependence on Pakistani ports. However, this is a long-term solution.
Regional Stability and Diplomatic Strain
Defense expert Sanjeev Srivastava stated that Pakistan-Afghanistan relations are "at their lowest." The recent clashes and suspension of ties by Pakistan confirm this. This instability poses a risk to the entire region. It could involve external actors with competing objectives.
For example, the clashes pose a threat to China's strategic investments. These include projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Regional and global actors face new strategic dilemmas. A sustained military conflict could transform the border area into a major conflict zone. It would involve state militaries, proxies, and non-state actors. This further destabilizes an already volatile South and Central Asia.
Impact on Counter-Terrorism Efforts
Deteriorating cooperation between Kabul and Islamabad benefits terrorist groups. This includes the TTP and the Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISKP). These groups exploit the instability. They find more operational space to plan and execute attacks. The lack of coordinated counter-terrorism efforts creates a vacuum. This allows transnational jihadist networks to resurge. Such a resurgence could project violence across South and Central Asia.
Expert Perspectives and Future Outlook
Experts widely agree that the border tensions are "too contentious and complex to resolve anytime soon". Joshua White, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, points out Pakistan's predicament. He states that "the Taliban leadership that it supported throughout much of the 20-year insurgency in Afghanistan is now sheltering militant groups targeting Islamabad".
Pakistan's current approach signals a readiness to use force against threats emanating from Afghanistan. This comes after years of diplomatic efforts to persuade the Taliban to curb TTP activities. There has been little international criticism of Pakistan's punitive military actions. This suggests that international opinion largely aligns with the need for the Afghan Taliban to take verifiable action against militant groups.
But this approach could destabilize the Taliban's already fragile governance system. It might lead to a dilemma for Pakistan as well. Sami Yousafzai suggests the Afghan government could allow the Pakistan Taliban "a freer reign in the border areas" in retaliation.
Moving Forward: The Need for Dialogue
Despite the severe tensions, diplomatic channels remain open. Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar has expressed plans to visit Kabul. Dialogue is essential to de-escalate the situation. Many stakeholders, including the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry, urge dialogue. They emphasize that political problems should not impact the economy.
What will this mean for relations moving forward?
While the violence has eased for now, with both countries signaling that they wish to de-escalate, the recent attacks could usher in a new era of instability for the neighbors.
“In the past, cyclical bouts of armed tensions typically have receded once both sides have made their point,” Levesques said, adding that Pakistan’s leadership views its country as a “stability provider for the region.”
Though Islamabad has not claimed direct responsibility for the airstrikes in Kabul, “such an attack would cross a red line in their relations,” Pandya said.
The last airstrikes in Kabul by a foreign power were in 2022 when the US killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, according to ACLED data, Pandya said.
“In terms of the future of the relationship, a lot will depend on whether this escalation leads to a fundamental shift in how the Taliban deals with the TTP, which is really the main issue,” Pandya said.
“The TTP fought alongside the Taliban against the US and NATO forces and there is a reluctance within the Taliban to seriously crack down upon them. It remains to be seen whether the mounting geopolitical costs will prompt a rethink on the part of the Taliban.”
Conclusion: A Perilous Path Demands Joint Action
The Afghanistan-Pakistan border crisis is a multifaceted challenge. Historical disputes rooted the crisis, militant groups exacerbated it, and the crisis has serious regional implications. Pakistani airstrikes directly triggered the latest clashes (October 2025). These targeted Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leadership in Afghanistan. Swift retaliatory operations followed this by Afghan forces. The 2,640-kilometer (1,640 mi) Durand Line, a colonial-era demarcation, remains officially unrecognized by Afghanistan. This forms the bedrock of persistent border disputes between the two nations.
Pakistan consistently accuses the Taliban government of providing a safe haven to TTP militants. The militants launch cross-border attacks. Kabul vehemently denied the claim. Instead, Kabul views Pakistani actions as violations of its sovereignty. The escalating conflict has led to the closure of vital trade crossings like Torkham and Chaman. This results in significant economic losses for both countries. It also disrupts crucial trade routes to Central Asia. Beyond the immediate military and civilian casualties, the tensions risk wider regional destabilization. This includes increased operational freedom for other terrorist organizations like ISKP. It also raises the potential for entanglement with major external powers such as China, Russia, and the United States.
Navigating this perilous future will require sustained diplomatic efforts, credible counter-terrorism cooperation, and a willingness by both sides to address deep-seated grievances. A comprehensive and cooperative approach is the only way to break the cycle of violence. This will pave the way for a more stable and prosperous South Asian region.
Deepen your understanding of this critical region. For more information on the historical agreements and ongoing legal perspectives on the Durand Line, explore this detailed analysis from ISSRA Insight: The Durand Line: A Legal Perspective and Way Forward. To understand the broader challenges facing Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts and the TTP’s evolving tactics, read this insightful report from the National Counterterrorism Center on Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
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